The toolkit
Mental models for better decisions — at work, in leadership, and in life. Each is a lens, not a law. Use them situationally.
Decompose to bedrock truth.
Break problems to their irreducible truths, then reason up. Cuts through assumption and analogy to reveal what is actually true.
Use when
When conventional wisdom feels wrong but you can't articulate why.
Think backwards to move forward.
Instead of asking 'how do I succeed?', ask 'what guarantees failure?' Inverting the problem surfaces risks you'd otherwise miss.
Use when
When planning a project, making a hire, or designing a system.
Imagine it already failed.
Project six months forward where the project has failed. Ask: what went wrong? Surface hidden risks before they surface you.
Use when
Before committing to any significant decision or launch.
Ask: and then what?
Every decision has consequences, and those consequences have consequences. Train yourself to see past the obvious first move.
Use when
Before any policy decision, product change, or team restructure.
Urgent vs important.
Four quadrants: do, schedule, delegate, or delete. Forces ruthless honesty about where your time actually goes.
Use when
Weekly planning, sprint prioritisation, or when overwhelmed.
Would 80-year-old you regret this?
Project yourself to age 80. Will you regret NOT doing this? Jeff Bezos used this to leave his job and start Amazon.
Use when
Career pivots, big bets, anything with long-term stakes.
20% of effort, 80% of results.
Most outputs come from a minority of inputs. Find the high-leverage 20% and ruthlessly deprioritise the rest.
Use when
Deciding what to build, what to cut, where to focus.
Small consistent actions compound.
Knowledge, skills, relationships — small consistent actions build extraordinary outcomes over time. The math is undeniable.
Use when
Building habits, skills, relationships, or long-term investments.
Track decisions. Learn from them.
Log the reasoning behind significant decisions, then review them. Eliminates hindsight bias and builds genuine calibration.
Use when
Any decision with non-obvious tradeoffs. Review quarterly.